Posts Tagged entertainment
The Basics Of Betting On Sports Futures
Posted by Ross Everett in Currency & Finance on April 9th, 2010
Serious sports bettors often dismiss futures wagers as sucker bets targeted at ’squares’ looking for a big payoff. For example, a typical futures ’sucker bet’ would be something like betting that Harvard will win the NCAA basketball tournament at 500/1 odds. Sure, the potential payback is huge but here’s the problem–the “true odds” of Harvard winning the NCAA hoops tournament are astronomical, and certainly well in excess of 500/1. That means that from the outset this bet represents a poor wagering value.
For the more serious bettor, there’s a number of obvious problems with futures wagers. They require that your wagering ‘capital’ be tied up for months. Furthermore, once you’ve placed your bet you’re at the mercy of injuries, suspensions, trades and the other numerous factors that can spell defeat for a sports team. It’s no simple task keeping up with these variables on a day to day basis, and predicting them over a longer term is the province of psychics and not sports handicappers.
So futures plays have no relevance to a serious approach to sports handicapping? Not necessarily. It’s crucial to think of the sports betting discipline in terms of value. Used properly, futures wagers are frequently a good way of maximizing line value and finding overlay situations. Here are some ways in which future wagers can be successfully leveraged.
Futures can be a good way to leverage value on propositions where your knowledge is greater than the bookmaker’s. For example, many sports books offer betting propositions on entertainment oriented events like the Academy Awards. A handicapper who pays close attention to the movie industry and Hollywood news can stay one step ahead of the linesmaker.
With many books taking bets on awards like ‘Best Picture’ before nominations are even announced, a bettor has a great opportunity to find overlay situations. By staying on top of the entertainment news and accurately predicting which films will be nominated, its often possible to get substantially better prices than will be available after their announcement.
The way the film industry works makes futures bets of this sort particularly appealing. Release schedules for films are set well in advance, and the cut off date for Academy Award consideration is the end of the calendar year. That way it’s easy for a handicapper to isolate a number of serious Oscar candidates out of the hundreds of films released annually. With more work, that can be narrowed down even more and once a workable number of potential winners has been reached it’s just a matter of shopping around for the best value.
Futures wagers are also effective for finding value in a sports betting paradigm. By its very nature, sports presents more variables to deal with than does the movie industry. The top teams are well known by both the linesmakers and general public, and seldom can be found at a value price. For example, you can already bet that the New England Patriots will win the 2010 Superbowl but you can be sure that you’re not going to get a good value price on such a well known ‘public’ team.
The place to find value in this sort of proposition is to look at the less obvious teams. A few years ago an associate of mine took positions on several teams NHL that started slowly, including the Calgary Flames at 40/1. By the end of the regular season they were down to prices as low as 5/1 or 6/1.
This play wasn’t based on any sort of profound revelation that a team that underachieved early in the season would turn it around, but rather on the potential value they presented. In other words, the ‘true odds’ were far less than the number offered at the time the bet was placed. At these high prices, its possible to isolate a few potential ‘dark horse’ candidates and should any pan out they present a variety of opportunities to hedge and lock in profits.
Also, don’t forget to consider ‘the field’. Many futures wagers lump a number of teams or competitors together as ‘the field’ and offer a single price to bet them all. Occasionally, the quick thinking handicapper can find unique value situations. For example, after Dale Earnhardt’s tragic death in 2001 some sportsbooks continued to offer a ‘field’ position on rookie of the year. A bettor who followed NASCAR closely would have quickly realized that Kevin Harvick–who replaced Earnhardt in his Richard Childress racing Chevy–qualified for the ‘rookie of the year’ award and could have bet the field at prices as high as 15/1. After he won his first race, the price for ‘the field’ dropped to 2/1 and by midseason ‘the field’ was a -250 favorite.
Clearly the Harvick play was a ‘best case scenario’ but there are other instances where value can be had on ‘the field’. While sportsbooks have learned a lot about NASCAR in recent years, up until a few years ago it was frequently possible to find a ‘field’ bet on road course races that included the ’specialists’ that teams frequently hire for these events. In other words, it was possible to bet a group of road course ‘ringers’ such as Ron Fellows, Scott Pruett and Robbie Gordon with one wager. Again, you have to keep your eyes open and be ready to act quickly to take advantage of these rare opportunities.
Don’t forget to shop around for the best wagering value. This is true with any sports bet, but particularly so with futures wagers as the prices you find will vary much more than a typical pointspread. A little bit of effort can easily reveal a more advantageous price, meaning greater line value.
Ross Everett is a well known writer specializing in sports handicapping, horse racing, travel and jousting. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is in charge of providing daily free sports picks to a number of websites and broadcast media outlets. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a wombat.
Profitable Sports Gambling Begins With Discipline
Posted by Ross Everett in Currency & Finance on February 28th, 2010
There’s a strange dichotomy between the complexity of high level sports handicapping and the amount of theoretical literature on the subject. While successful sports betting is a complex and difficult pursuit, there’s very little that’s been written on the subject from a serious theoretical angle. For that reason, it can be helpful to delve into the wealth of books available to the serious poker player for insights that can be applied to sports betting.
On one level, this is likely due to the fact that poker”like sports gambling”is a pursuit in which the knowledgeable and skillful practitioner can overcome the theoretical odds against him. To paraphrase the great poker theoretician Bob Caro, there are some professional blackjack players and sports gamblers in addition to professional poker players. There may even be a few professional horse players (though the house edge against the horse player is a hefty 17% or so). In the entire world, however, there is not one professional roulette player.
The reason for that is that the house advantage in roulette is too high to overcome by any combination of skill, money management, strategy or discipline. To throw in another Caro concept, its a case where the decisions made by the roulette player simply don’t have a role in overcoming the house advantage. Over the long haul whether you choose red or black, even or odd the house edge remains the same.
Caro argues that one of the poker players most valuable weapons is discipline at the table. The reason for this is that the average person goes into a casino for precisely the opposite reason”he wants to have some downtime away from the discipline and order that circumscribes the rest of his life. He wants to down a few cocktails, leer at some cocktail waitresses, and throw some money around for awhile. Hes not worried about theoretical return on investment, pot odds or other concepts of serious play. Casinos exist for the sole reason of providing him all of the escapism he wants while they slowly use their house advantage to make a profit off of him. Granted, poker operates differently in terms of the house advantage but the motivation that drives the recreational gambler to the poker table is no different than that which drives him to the slot machines or blackjack layout.
Caro’s emphasis on discipline in poker is also true for the serious sports gambler. The foundation of a professional sports bettor’s long term success is to approach it with the same discipline, rigor and professionalism that he would any other job. If you continue to think about it in the same terms as the recreational gambler does, you’re in for a difficult road. The more seriousness that you bring to your sports betting, the higher the likelihood that you’ll be successful.
This isn’t to say that there’s anything wrong with being a recreational sports gambler. In fact, those of us who do this professionally *need* recreational players–they’re the financial lifeblood of the casino and sportsbook industry. Handicapping sports would be pretty pointless without a bookmaker to take our bets.
The life of a professional sports bettor isn’t for everyone, and if you just want to bet recreationally and have fun with it that’s great. While a few theoretical tips here and there won’t hurt, the only discipline that really matters for a recreational player is the same thing for any other hobby–don’t spend more on it than you can afford to. After that, you’re on your own to have fun with it.
Ross Everett is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports and is in charge of providing daily free sports picks to a variety of Internet websites and broadcast media outlets. He is a widely published freelance writer specializing in sports handicapping, auto racing, clogging and falconry. He lives in Southern Nevada with three dogs and a wombat.
Las Vegas Poker Superstar Stu Ungar
Posted by Ross Everett in 1 on January 6th, 2010
Stu Ungar didn’t have much going for him in most areas of life. In fact, it could very well be argued that he was downright inept in most areas of existence. He also had a self destructive streak that manifest itself in heavy drug use and other behaviors. Ungar, however, had one great gift–he was a prodigy with a deck of cards. He would become one of the first superstars of poker before it became a fixture on ESPN, but wouldn’t live to enjoy the ‘boom’. Ungar would eventually be done in by his baser elements, and would be found dead in a Las Vegas hotel room in November,’88.
Ungar’s skills at the poker table were like Mozart’s at the piano. While countless volumes of poker strategy and theory have been written, Ungar’s understanding of the game was downright instinctive. Ungar’s greatest achievement was his three World Series of Poker victories, but he won millions in informal games and profitable card room sessions. The amazing thing about Ungar’s sheer mastery of Texas Hold’em was the fact that it was the third card game he had mastered. Ungar first came to Las Vegas as a gin rummy prodigy; he had beaten all of the good players on the East Coast and moved to the desert mecca in search of new opportunities. He had soon run the table of Nevada’s gin players, and then turned to blackjack out of necessity. He was quickly barred as a card counter at a number of Southern Nevada casinos. Needing a new vocation, he took up poker.
The problem, however, was that as masterful as Ungar was at life in the poker room, he was profoundly inept at existence beyond the casino walls. He fought a number of addictions-most notably to drugs and sports gambling. Following his WSOP victory in’97, the’98 tourney found him broke and almost wasted away from drug use. Though he had secured financial backing that would have enabled him to play, as the games began Ungar sat in the dark in his hotel room at Binion’s unable to compose himself enough to appear.
There are countless other Ungar stories that evoke the same theme: he once paid cash for a new Mercedes and drove it until it simply fell apart from lack of basic maintenance. He signed his mortgage paperwork at the table in the Dunes poker room and was taken aback that he couldn’t make his down payment in chips.
Tragically, Ungar’s death came as he’d began to show signs of turning his life around. Noted casino owner and longtime friend Bob Stupak had stepped in to help Ungar pay off his debts, clean up his life, and provide the stake money to enter the major poker tournaments. Ungar was found two days after the two had formalized the agreement in a contract. Ungar also left behind an ex-wife and a teenage daughter, who still live in Las Vegas. The official cause of death was listed as “coronary atherosclerosis” and a mixture of drugs including cocaine, methadone and Percodan were found in his system.
Most of the famous gamblers of Las Vegas legend-guys like Puggy Person and Doyle Brunson– have been tough, larger than life individuals with a healthier than normal dose of self-preservation skills. In this respect, Ungar was an anomaly among gambling greats-he was physically frail and almost completely helpless away from the poker table. With a handful of cards and a pile of chips, however, he became a ruthless and indomitable warrior. His story is certainly not one that the modern day, publicity conscious Las Vegas will celebrate. He will be remembered, however, as part of the tradition that gives the city its unique character. From the mobsters that pioneered the city, to the Rat Pack that civilized it, to the corporations that cleaned it up, characters like Stu Ungar have provided the spice that makes Las Vegas America’s ‘Paris in the desert’. Ungar may never have a statue on Fremont Street, but his spirit will live on.
Ross Everett is a respected freelance writer who covers travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, falconry and deep sea diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.
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An Introduction To NFL Totals
Posted by Ross Everett in Currency & Finance on December 29th, 2009
For the NFL handicapper, understanding the methodology behind NFL totals (also called over/under numbers) is crucial. For those not familiar with NFL totals, its the large number youll see accompanying most pointspread betting propositions. For example, the 2009 Superbowl line opened with Pittsburgh a 6 point favorite over Arizona. The total was set at 47. Simply stated, the total allows the better to decide whether the combined score between the two teams will go OVER or UNDER.
NFL totals are a favorite tool of serious sports handicappers. Many are of the opinion that its easier to accurately foretell the *type* of game that will transpire between two teams rather than who will actually win and by how much.
The basics of setting NFL totals are fairly simple: the bookmaker looks at the offensive and defensive data for the two teams and constructs a number based on points allowed and points scored. If one team had scored 275 points and allowed 350 in their previous sixteen games thats a total of 625 and their opponent had scored 285 and allowed 400 (685) over 16 games that translates to just under 43 points per game. Add the two numbers together, divide by two and youve got a base total of 40.5.
At this point other factors are considered such as the significance of key numbers like 3 and 7 on final scores, weather conditions, injuries, playing surface, etc. Another component that is important is the qualitative matchup between the offense and defense of each team”meaning that a team with a strong defense will be more likely to dictate the tempo’ of a game resulting in a lower final score. All of these factors weigh into a final NFL total that is posted for betting.
Of course as in the case of the NFL pointspread, public perception is a crucial component of the linesmaking process. For example, the conventional wisdom is that bad weather like rain, snow, or sleet results in lower scores and for that reason a bookmaker will shade the total accordingly. However, its not quite that simple–some handicappers would maintain that sloppy weather can produce higher scores in certain situations.
In conclusion, NFL totals are a very good opportunity for a hard working handicapper to leverage his information about a situational matchup to find good wagering value. Like most elements of the sports handicapping discipline, its not easy to stay a step ahead of the bookmakers who have access to the same weather and injury–and have factored it into the number–but is a very entertaining and potentially rewarding challenge for the NFL betting enthusiast.
Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and noted sports betting expert. He is also a consulting handicapper for Sports-1 Sportsbook and is in charge of setting NFL lines. He has written extensively on sports betting theory along with a wide range of other topics including fencing, boxing and dog training.
Future Book Betting Traps And How To Avoid Them
Posted by Ross Everett in Currency & Finance on December 23rd, 2009
Sports book futures bets are an increasing popular and potentially profitable way to wager on the outcome of a full season. There’s a few common mistakes that novice players make that can be easily avoided by paying attention to the following:
Don’t bet at the first place you look: In other words, shop around for the best price. This is essential to all aspects of sports betting, but especially important with futures wagers. You’ll find more disparity between prices from book to book on futures than any other betting proposition. From a theoretical standpoint, a little work can yield much better value. From a practical standpoint, that means a higher payout should you win. The reason for this is that individual sportsbooks’ aren’t as worried about what the other guys are doing as they are with most other bets. Once the futures “market” is set books move the lines almost exclusively on their own financial position. The market simply doesn’t respond as quickly to futures wagers as it does to individual game lines so it is essential to do the extra work to get the best price on your proposition.
In a competitive field, don’t obsess with picking the winner: This may sound like a strange concept, but once you understand the theory behind it it makes perfect sense. In a large field–the NCAA basketball tournament is a perfect example–the top few favorites are invariably priced at odds that are less than the ‘true odds’ of them winning. On the other hand, there are always teams that fly ‘under the radar’ available at higher prices that present a betting overlay.
To put this in more theoretical terms, the “true odds” of Duke winning the NCAA Championship are almost certainly higher than the price we’re getting. Obviously, determining the “true odds”, or actual probability of a future event is an inexact science but think of it this way: if the NCAA tournament was played 100 times would Duke wind up winning 50 of those? Given the number of other good teams and the propensity for upsets along the way, its doubtful. For the sake of argument, lets say that Duke has a 33% chance to win the tournament. That means that I wouldn’t consider a bet on Duke to be a good value unless I was getting a price that a) accurately reflected the true probability of their winning and b) gave me some compensation for assuming the “risk of the unknown” inherent in taking the position so far in advance. At +500 I might be interested, but at +200 the value just isn’t there.
Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on the favorites. Since you can make a case for quite a few teams to win the NCAA tournament at this point this particular futures market is clearly a very competitive one. In a less competitive marketplace it might be possible to “pick the winner” and have it be a good value though you will pay a price for this. Here’s a (thankfully) hypothetical example: let’s say the UFC decided to hold a one night round robin tournament with 5 competitors. Competitor #1 would be heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. The other four competitors would be professional figure skaters Elvis Stojko, Rudy Gallindo, Brian Boitano and Evgeni Plushinko. Even if he didn’t bring his “A game”, Lesnar would be essentially have a 100% certainty of beating the four untrained fighters, who also happen to be rather effeminate. If a sportsbook installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite a bet on the 63 265 pound takedown would still be theoretically a good value. It’s always difficult to risk so much to win a little, but from a strictly theoretical standpoint its a good play.
Don’t get seduced by big underdogs: Sports betting is not a place to make the “big killing”. It may happen occasionally, but more often it doesn’t. While a sports book might offer a huge price on a cellar dwelling team to win the World Series, the big payback does not mean its a good value. On a practical level, there’s probably nothing wrong with throwing a few bucks on a wager like this with a huge payback if the impossible occurs. My only problem with this is that making too many bets like this just perpetuates bad sports betting habits. If you’re strictly a recreational player, no big deal. If you aspire to bet professionally, or at least want to pursue it with some degree of seriousness I’ve always maintained that you need to develop discipline that’s not situational. In other words, if you want to be a serious sports bettor you need to approach it with a consistent level of seriousness at all times. If you want to chase a huge, life altering jackpot go to Las Vegas and play the Megabucks slots or buy a Powerball ticket.
On a more theoretical level, a big price alone is no way to justify a wager. The concept of value works the same at the bottom of the barrel as it does at the top: make sure the price you’re getting on an underdog accurately reflects their “true odds” of winning.
Don’t waste your money on ridiculous prop bets: Occasionally sports books offer ridiculous bets to get press or to be funny. For example, a book once offered odds on Demi Moore, Ashton Kutcher and Bruce Willis all hopping into bed together and releasing a video tape of the proceedings. You’d no doubt get a huge payback were this to happen, but the ‘true odds’ of such an event transpiring far exceeded even a big potential payback.
Ross Everett is a widely published widely published freelance sports writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.
Tito Ortiz Returns To The UFC
Posted by Ross Everett in Currency & Finance on December 21st, 2009
According to the old saying time heals all wounds. In the fight game, money”or the potential of it”has the same curative effect. The latest evidence of this is the announcement that Tito Ortiz has patched things up with Dana White and agreed to a new contract to fight in the UFC. Tito left the promotion over a year ago after an acrimonious split with White, though never found a new promotional home that would give him the money and the high profile status that he craved.
Ortiz has had several run ins with the UFC over their notoriously tight pay structure, and first left the promotion in 2005. He was back later that year for a run as a coach on The Ultimate Fighter against longtime rival Ken Shamrock. After losing to current light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida in his last UFC appearance, Ortiz left the company and bounced around doing personal appearances and commentary for a variety of promotions. He had surgery on his back in the process, and now claims that hes back to 100%.
Tito may never regain his championship form as a fighter, but that is of minimal relevance due to one salient fact”people will pay to see him fight.. Ortiz is a fighter that offers no middle ground of public opinion, as people either love him or hate him. That dynamic is box office and PPV gold, a fact not lost on the savvy UFC brass. Dana White noted this fact in his comments on Ortiz at a Friday press conference in Las Vegas:
“Tito and I have a history that everyone knows. He’s still a guy that everyone wants to see fight. He said his back has healed perfectly and he’s ready to take a shot at the title. He’s one of those guys that people love and people love to hate. We’ve put all our differences aside, have squashed everything and will move forward, and Tito will retire in the UFC.”
In response, Ortiz quipped:
“Time really cures everything. Dana was a man of his word. Dana apologized to me. We’re like boyfriend and girlfriend.”
Ortiz said that Dana White and UFC co-owner Lorenzo Fertitta came to his home in Huntington Beach, California and made him an offer he couldn’t turn down:
“I’m happy, I’m satisfied, You’ll never hear anything about money again.
Sources suggest that Ortiz could debut on the UFCs New Years card against Mark Coleman. Coleman is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Stephan Bonnar at UFC 100 in mid July.
To best understand Titos appeal and why the UFC was so anxious to re-sign him, well paraphrase HBO boxing commentator Larry Merchant. As he previewed the George Foreman/Michael Moorer heavyweight championship bout he addressed criticism that Foreman didnt deserve the bout based on his recent form. Merchant noted that there are many fighters, but very few stars. Like George Foreman, Tito Ortiz is a star. Some love him, some hate him but people pay to watch him fight.
Ross Everett is a widely published widely published freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.
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