Posts Tagged sports gambling
Understanding The NFL Point Spread
Posted by Ross Everett in Currency & Finance on December 29th, 2009
In order to bet on NFL football its important to start with the fundamentals. And were not talking about the Xs and Os of professional football game planning”were talking about the fundamentals of understanding the wagering side of the equation. Theres a lot of misunderstanding about what NFL pointspreads mean and how they are setting. A firm grasp of the essential bookmaking concept of setting NFL lines is a prerequisite for sports betting success.
The general public has a tendency to oversimplify the meaning of an NFL pointspread. The conventional wisdom is that it is simply a prediction of which team will win and by how much. In theory, a sportsbooks primary goal is to equally divide the action they take on an individual game. If they do their job right, the outcome of the game is irrelevant to the bookmaker. Youll frequently hear clueless sportscasters make inane comments following a big upset like Boy, the sportsbooks in Las Vegas must have lost their shirts on that one. Thats something that simply cannot be determined from the outcome of the game alone.
Since a bookmakers primary goal in setting NFL betting lines is to equally divide action, they have to make each side of a wagering proposition attractive to a prospective player. For that reason, its more accurate to say that NFL lines are more of a reflection of the betting publics perception of which team will win a game and by how much than anything else. Some NFL teams are considered public teams due to their popularity and/or perceived qualitative skill. So if the numbers in a hypothetical game between Dallas and Cincinnati indicate that the Cowboys should be a -6 favorite a book may open the game at -7 or -7.
In early season wagering there are a few additional factors at play. A bookmaker may consider a teams NFL preseason record for the simple reason that the NFL betting public gives it undue attention. Sharp players know that there is little correlation between a teams preseason success (or lack thereof) and their regular season performance. Another consideration is a teams performance in the previous season or, in some cases, their historical performance.
Furthermore, its important to understand why NFL lines are moved after the opening numbers are posted. While it may occasionally be due to external factors such as injury or weather, more often than not its a direct result of the money a book is drawing on one side of the proposition or another. The idea is that by moving the line it makes wagers on the side a book wishes to attract money on more attractive.
NFL football betting is a very complex discipline, and many neophytes make the mistake of focusing exclusively on the nuances of the game itself. To successfully bet on NFL football, however, it is important to spend as much time understanding the intricacies of the sports gambling marketplace.
Ross Everett is a respected freelance writer who covers travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and deep sea diving. He lives in Las Vegas with four dogs and a pet coyote.
An Introduction To NFL Totals
Posted by Ross Everett in Currency & Finance on December 29th, 2009
For the NFL handicapper, understanding the methodology behind NFL totals (also called over/under numbers) is crucial. For those not familiar with NFL totals, its the large number youll see accompanying most pointspread betting propositions. For example, the 2009 Superbowl line opened with Pittsburgh a 6 point favorite over Arizona. The total was set at 47. Simply stated, the total allows the better to decide whether the combined score between the two teams will go OVER or UNDER.
NFL totals are a favorite tool of serious sports handicappers. Many are of the opinion that its easier to accurately foretell the *type* of game that will transpire between two teams rather than who will actually win and by how much.
The basics of setting NFL totals are fairly simple: the bookmaker looks at the offensive and defensive data for the two teams and constructs a number based on points allowed and points scored. If one team had scored 275 points and allowed 350 in their previous sixteen games thats a total of 625 and their opponent had scored 285 and allowed 400 (685) over 16 games that translates to just under 43 points per game. Add the two numbers together, divide by two and youve got a base total of 40.5.
At this point other factors are considered such as the significance of key numbers like 3 and 7 on final scores, weather conditions, injuries, playing surface, etc. Another component that is important is the qualitative matchup between the offense and defense of each team”meaning that a team with a strong defense will be more likely to dictate the tempo’ of a game resulting in a lower final score. All of these factors weigh into a final NFL total that is posted for betting.
Of course as in the case of the NFL pointspread, public perception is a crucial component of the linesmaking process. For example, the conventional wisdom is that bad weather like rain, snow, or sleet results in lower scores and for that reason a bookmaker will shade the total accordingly. However, its not quite that simple–some handicappers would maintain that sloppy weather can produce higher scores in certain situations.
In conclusion, NFL totals are a very good opportunity for a hard working handicapper to leverage his information about a situational matchup to find good wagering value. Like most elements of the sports handicapping discipline, its not easy to stay a step ahead of the bookmakers who have access to the same weather and injury–and have factored it into the number–but is a very entertaining and potentially rewarding challenge for the NFL betting enthusiast.
Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and noted sports betting expert. He is also a consulting handicapper for Sports-1 Sportsbook and is in charge of setting NFL lines. He has written extensively on sports betting theory along with a wide range of other topics including fencing, boxing and dog training.
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